The Colonel, Libya, Democracy and NATO.

On a similar theme to the last post on Japan and oil, one less immediately discussed consequence of the conflict in Libya and NATO intervention is the rise in oil prices. Various sources say that 1 million barrels of Libyan oil a day have been knocked off the global supply, upping barrel prices by $2.

Curbing despotic behaviour is costly in lives, infrastructure, resources and fuel for those directly involved on both sides.
For those not involved, especially many countries in Sub Sahara Africa, large parts of Asia, Central and South America it can cost lives through hunger and malnutrition, development,  political instability etc etc.

These are countries that often have their own dodgy leaderships and tyrannical rule but which tend not to have resources useful enough to warrant any intervention.

Post-Tsunami Japan

Bad days in Japan.

Today the Prime Minister even ordered people in some areas not to eat leafy foods while some areas are banned from transporting food. Then there is raised iodine levels in the Tokyo water system.

A lot has been made about how it is that a country so prone to earthquakes is so reliant on nuclear power but the fact remains that Japan is massively reliant on hydrocarbon sources  - two thirds of it's energy is based on gas,oil and coal. (In the UK we are 75% reliant on hydrocarbons).

The Japanese government now has to make up the loss in power from the Fukushima power plant. It may be able to do this by boosting output from its other nuclear or hydroelectric plants. Or it will have to import more oil and gas. And maybe after the unfolding disaster in Fukishama Japan will reappraise its appetite for nuclear energy? Maybe other countries will too.

This unexpected Japanese dip into the global oil market will push the price up as will the cost of shipping the stuff. The Indian government has to set aside about $1billion in foreign exchange for every $2 rise in the price of a barrel of oil - money diverted from other uses.

Imagine then the problem facing poor countries  - power, fertilizers, transport all becomes more expensive and ultimately makes those countries reliant on food imports very vulnerable to supply shocks. The human context is increased hunger, food riots, malnutrition, increased child mortality......

Japan Earthquake

Like everyone I am shocked by the images coming out of Japan. It's almost impossible to comprehend the human toll and the terrible trauma being suffered in the aftermath of this devastation. What's more the quake will have long term implications for people both in Japan and outside. Land use will be a massive issue - thousands of people made homeless by the tsunami (and possibly even by the nuclear radiation) will have to be housed. The flattened coastal towns look like they will not be ready to be redeveloped for many years to come - if at all.

Which makes the footage of the saline oily sludge packed with hideous debris forcing its way across prime agricultural land also very tragic. Farm land in Japan is limited and an extremely precious resource. It's too early to say how much land will be affected but some of this land may never be used again, and just when the country will need to produce as much food as possible to feed a massive homeless population. It may even have to sacrifice existing farmland to create new urban centres.

Japan used to be self-sufficient in many foodstuffs but with an increasing post-war population and a shift toward high-tech manufacturing, land available for agriculture decreased, as did the number of farmers. Japan is fortunate in one sense - it hasn't pursued a policy of self sufficiency and imports large amounts of meat, rice and vegetables.

Japan will inevitably be forced to import more food to make up the shortfall from what has been wiped out - all of which will have to be grown or raised elsewhere. Japan can afford to shore up its own food security but for poorer nations already suffering from high food, oil and fertiliser prices this earthquake may cause a spike in food prices that will spread even more bad news around the world.